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SAAB – Now What?

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By Brendan Moore

As you may have read, Saab’s slow death rattle was halted last Friday. Two small Chinese firms, Pang Da and Youngman, offered again to purchase Saab from the floundering Swedish Automobile, a company born from the ashes of the GM abandonment, Spyker’s purchase of Saab, and then, the subsequent divesture of the Spyker supercar part of the business. 

The time, Swedish Automobile said yes to the acquisition, staving off what would have been certain liquidation of Saab. So, it now looks like Pang Da Automobile Trade Co. and Zhejiang Youngman Lotus Automobile Co. will probably be the proud new owners of Saab, and all for the laughably low price of $142 million USD. 

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Saab’s Uncertain Turnaround Continues at a Stagger

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Since the last piece I wrote about Saab, Saab Turnaround 2011 – The Struggle and the Pain, there have been subsequent machinations in Trollhättan, as the Swedish auto manufacturer tries desperately to live another day in order to facilitate its long-term survival. 

Just to recap regarding the emergence of Saab’s new Chinese partner, and possible saviour, Pang Da: 

After a deal with Chinese SUV-maker Hawtie fell apart, Saab immediately fell into the arms of Pang da, a more well-known Chinese company that is a vehicle distributor in-country. Pang Da currently imports and distributes Toyota, Subaru and Honda brands in China. 

The initial agreement had a commitment by Pang Da to buy Saab vehicles in two tranches. An initial purchase worth 30 million euros has already been agreed to and a subsequent tranch worth 15 million euros is scheduled right behind that, Victor Muller, CEO of Spyker, told journalists in Sweden in May. Muller then added that the first tranch was already on a train, heading for China. 

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RIM Needs a Turnaround Now

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The past week has seen investors in Research in Motion (RIM) heading for the door with a wild look in their eyes, breathing hard with their ears pinned back. 

The share price of RIM has plummeted over 50% since the beginning of 2011; a trend that has accelerated recently because of the brickbats thrown at the new BlackBerry tablet by reviewers, the fact that no new smartphone product/update has been announced, and, a drop in earnings. 

RIM is No. 3 in the smartphone market behind Apple and the Google-platform Android platform smartphones, but that spot is looking more and more tenuous everyday as RIM continues to lose market share. Comscore says RIM’s market share in the smartphone sector has taken a massive dive from 40% in 2010 to the current 26%. And, BlackBerry sales last quarter have experienced their first quarterly drop in sales since 2005. Lastly, the market cap of RIM now sits at $14 billion USD, down from $80 billion a scant 36 months ago. 

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Saab Turnaround 2011 – The Struggle and the Pain

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In February, I wrote a piece titled “Can Saab Be Turned Around?” in which I pondered the chances of Saab being able to do a herculean amount of work with what little they had to work with, and, in the process, turn themselves around. 

Since that time, Saab has plunged into a financial abyss, been forced to shut down production, and taken on one Chinese investment partner (Hawtie), and then been forced to abandon that deal within two weeks because the Chinese company could not get the required permissions from the Chinese government to do the deal, and then, take on another Chinese business partner (Pangda). 

What bought on the aforementioned sudden fall, you might ask? 

To put it succinctly, the CEO’s rash actions. Saab had been paying all of their suppliers late for months, trying to conserve their cash flow, more or less “stealing from Peter to pay Paul”, which in this instance meant they were trying to put more money into sales, marketing, research and development; the first two things they desperately need to do to get more cash now (by selling some cars), and from the development perspective, they need to get the next generation of the 9-3 moving along, which is their volume model, and which needs an update. 

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Experience and the Turnaround

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While at a business conference earlier this year, a fellow I had just met mentioned to me in an offhand way that they (his business unit) had just hired a young guy out of a prestigious business school program to “fix” their business, which has been on the decline for the past three years. They hired this guy as a permanent employee, and the CEO had great hopes that he would bring the company back into the black by the end of this year, using the latest business strategies. He reports directly to the CEO, not the head of the business unit.

After all, he did have a perfect GPA at the B-School he attended.

I hope that works out for them, but I did give him my business card. “Just in the instance that the task turns out to be a little bigger than you thought”, I said.

Now for some business-style preaching:

When managing a business turnaround, there is a great deal of reliance on data, on forecasts, on costs, on efficiency, on quality, etc. And many of the things you do to fix the company are the things taught in most business schools and/or internal management training programs at large corporations.

So, any young over-achiever right out of business school with the most up-to-date academic knowledge can probably fix what’s ailing your business and get it turned around pretty quick, right?

I’m waiting…

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Rovio Mobile, Developer of Angry Birds, Gets $42 Million in Funding

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The newest overnight sensation of the digital gaming industry has now officially been crowned. Rovio Mobile, a tiny mobile gaming company out of Finland run by Niklas and Mikael Hed (cousins), has ridden their Angry Birds game to lofty marketplace success (40 million active users) and a financing round of $42 million USD, led by Accel Partners and Atomico Ventures. 

Of course, someone gets the obligatory board seat, and in this case, that someone is Niklas Zennstrom, a co-founder of Atomico Ventures, as well as another company named Skype. He is going to sit on the board of Rovio Mobile, his new investment. He also issued the even-more-obligatory statement, saying, “Angry Birds is one of the fastest-growing online products I’ve seen, growing even faster than Skype, and the company has done a brilliant job of extending it across different platforms and merchandise.” 

It’s worth noting that little Rovio put out 50 titles before they went platinum with Angry Birds, courtesy of the explosion in smart phones; now that they have a thoroughbred in their stable, they intend to ride that horse until they can breed another winner. 

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Can Saab Be Turned Around?

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There are turnarounds of an average degree of difficulty, and then there are turnarounds that might take a couple of years off of your life.

Bringing Saab, the Swedish automaker, back from near-death, is probably in the latter category.

Just a quick recap, for those unfamiliar with the Saab story:

Saab originally made airplanes (and a subsidiary spun off long ago still does), developed a prototype car in 1949, started selling cars in earnest in the Fifties, entered the U.S. market, and developed what could probably be accurately called a small but fanatical following in America. Saabs were quirky, front-wheel drive when almost nothing else was, extremely safe, very economical, and, last, but hardly least, had design that was truly innovative and different-looking.

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Will Your Business Need A Turnaround Soon?

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Four times in my business career I have answered a telephone and someone else on the other end asked if I could help them turn their business around.

I accepted the challenge each time, and have a success rate of 75%. Three of those businesses were turned around successfully; one was not. Each business was at death’s door by the time the call was made to me. Each person in charge of those businesses waited until the last minute of the last hour before deciding that it was time to “do or die”, that it was finally the right time to accept the wrenching changes that would be necessary to give their respective business a fighting chance at survival.

I don’t wish to belabor the obvious here, but it sure would have been easier to bring back the commercial concerns in question if there had been earlier recognition of problems at those businesses, as well as an earlier willingness to act to fix the problems. Believe me, I would have been happy to come on the scene earlier, be given a set of more manageable problems concerning the health of the business, and, spared the client the experience of living inside the pressure cooker of uncertainty regarding the survival of the company, even if it meant far less billable hours.

But, that’s not how it usually works. Business owners are human beings, and human beings tend to develop inertia and be resistant to change. Business tails off, but it’s not off by a lot, and then it gets a little worse, but, you know, things are still okay, and then things are just okay for quite awhile, until they’re not.

I’m reminded of the passage in Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, in which one character asks another, “How did you go bankrupt”?

“Two ways”, the other man says. “Gradually, and then suddenly”.

Yes, that’s how it usually happens. Businesses almost never explode and fail, a la the CFO running off to Bolivia with the company’s working capital, or an ugly public relations fiasco, or the CEO and founder perishing in a plane crash. Nope, most companies that die simply wither away slowly.

Will this happen to your business?

It’s possible; many businesses fold, and disappear under the waves of commerce every year. But, if you’re paying attention to the basics, your chances of sticking around get much, much better.

The basics include, but are not limited to:

•Paying attention to what your competitors are doing – not only does this give you a way to match/exceed their offerings, there might be something they have that you want to emulate.

•Paying attention to market trends – even if you’re not first with the product your customers desire most, a fast second will usually save the day (and sometimes rule the day).

•Being cognizant of overall economic trends – if all you sell is trucks that get 10 mpg and gasoline climbs up to $5 a gallon, there is trouble on the horizon.

•Making it as easy as possible for customers to buy what you’re selling – Example 1: Client had the national distribution rights to a product (machinery) that the target market definitely wants and needs, but the acquisition cost was high and many customers could not afford the one-time expense. The solution was to find a small-ticket lessor that would offer lease financing to prospective buyers on a private-label basis (leasing branded with the client’s name). The client not only moved more product at higher margins, they also made fee income from the leases generated through the arrangement. Example 2: Client that does custom web development wanted to sell website templates of their own design to customers that want a different look than most sites, but do not have the budget for custom work. Unfortunately, many of these prospective customers have little or no technological expertise. The solution was to offer different packages with different degrees of required customer involvement at different price points. There was no “take it or leave it” attitude in terms of the product being offered; in fact, our client offered enough different levels of “do it yourself” packages so that it the average prospect found it highly likely that they would find a package that suited their skill/desire level.

•Conducting regular business strategy sessions – If you’re a very small company, this may seem almost laughable to you, but replacing those conversations you have after hours with your three employees over take-out food with a scheduled strategy session led by someone with experience in business strategy can usually produce better results. And, if you’re a large company, and you’re doing okay in the market, and nothing (product, competitors, size of market, etc.) has changed in five years, there probably doesn’t seem to be a pressing need for business strategy at corporate headquarters, but again, it can prove to be quite valuable to put a day aside and sit in a room with your peers and talk about just where you want the business to go in the next couple of years.

•Always thinking about a strategic alliance – it’s a cold, brutal business environment out there, and having another ally when facing off against your competitors always helps.

•Reviewing your marketing assets on a regular basis – there may be value in data or relationships you already have. I had a client that acquired a much larger, poorly-run competitor in order to get their retail locations and their commercial contracts, and ignored the list of 45,000+ consumer customers that came with the acquisition for over two years, despite the fact that it was a higher margin business that that the client was then trying to build up in a separate business unit. I was told, “They’re not our customers. There are some very unhappy campers in that portfolio”. Meanwhile, good money was being spent to send out direct mail pieces to new prospects.

•Constantly improving your business processes – reducing costs, reducing cycle times, increasing profits and increasing customer satisfaction are all very good things that should be done on an ongoing basis, not just when a crisis is looming.

•Having business financing always available – don’t wait until the moment it starts raining to get an umbrella, have one ready. Establish lines of credit before an emergency situation, not as a result of – the terms will be better, and access to the funding is immediate.

Now, all of this may seem pretty basic to all of you. It is. And, as I noted above, this isn’t even a complete list, there are more basic things businesses should do in order to not need a turnaround specialist in the future. But I think you would be surprised at how many businesses, large and small, ignore the basic blocking and tackling that they should be doing on a daily basis. Lethargy creeps in; the living organism that is the business is fat and happy, and habit takes over in terms of day-to-day activities.

Let this serve as your alarm clock if your business is one of the sleepy ones, and your senior managers are conducting their duties in a soporific trance. I’m happy to come over to your place and help you with a turnaround, but really, I think you would be happier if you didn’t need a turnaround in the first place.

Brendan Moore is a Principal Consultant with Cedar Point Consulting, a management consulting practice based in the Washington, DC area, where he advises businesses in marketing, sales, front-end operations, and strategy. Cedar Point Consulting can be found at http://www.cedarpointconsulting.com/.

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